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Polityka przemysłowa versus pułapka średniego dochodu – przykłady ukierunkowanego przeciwdziałania
Industrial policy versus the middle-income trap: The case for directional thrust

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Robert H. Wade

Department of International Development
London School of Economics and Political Science
Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
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doi: 10.15678/ZP.2016.37.3.01

SŁOWA KLUCZOWE

pułapka średniego dochodu, polityka przemysłowa, konwergencja, czynniki produkcji

KEYWORDS

the middle-income trap, industrial policies, convergence, production factor

STRESZCZENIE

Liczba krajów nienależących do grupy państw zachodnich, które w ciągu ostatnich dwóch stuleci zyskały status rozwiniętych, nie przekracza 10 i nieomal każdy z nich posiada niewielką populację. Ten zadziwiający fakt łączy się z innymi dowodami potwierdzającymi istnienie „pułapki średniego dochodu” (middle-income trap, MIT) lub „pułapki braku zdolności konwergencji” (non-convergence trap), które sprzyjają zachowaniu obecnej hierarchii światowej gospodarki – pomimo twierdzenia, że rozwój przemysłu po drugiej wojnie światowej będzie służyć państwom rozwijającym się. W niniejszym artykule przedstawiono dowody na istnienie MIT, opisano mechanizmy jej powstawania, wyjaśniono, dlaczego aktywne polityki handlowe i przemysłowe są niemal niezbędnym warunkiem wyjścia kraju z tej pułapki szybciej niż w ślimaczym tempie. W pracy znalazły się także praktyczne podpowiedzi dotyczące tego, jak prowadzić wspomniane polityki – w sposób odmienny niż ten, który wynika z ducha konsensusu waszyngtońskiego oraz dwustronnych regionalnych porozumień handlowych i inwestycyjnych.

ABSTRACT

The number of non-western countries which have become developed in the past two centuries is less than 10, almost all small in population. This shocking stylized fact joins with other evidence to support the reality of a “middle-income trap” (MIT) or “non-convergence trap”, which tends to protect the existing hierarchy of the world economy – even though the post-Second World War development industry has claimed to promote catch-up growth. This paper summarizes evidence for the existence of a MIT, outlines several plausible mechanisms, explains why proactive trade and industrial policies are an almost necessary condition for a country to rise through the middle income range at more than a snail’s pace, and suggests some rules of thumb for how to do trade and industrial policies well – rather than less, in line with the Washington Consensus and bilateral and regional trade and investment agreements.

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SUGEROWANE CYTOWANIE / SUGGESTED CITATION

Wade R.H. (2016), Polityka przemysłowa versus pułapka średniego dochodu – przykłady ukierunkowanego przeciwdziałania, Zarządzanie Publiczne, nr 3 (37), s. 7-25.
 

 

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